V-Lab
Henderson Far East Income Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
3,238.99
increased by 9.92
1 Week
3,194.36
decreased by 34.71
1 Month
2,829.41
decreased by 399.66
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 42 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9195 | 9.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0843 | 10.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8992 | 81.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0039 | -2.32** |
0.983
Persistence42d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9195 | 9.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0843 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8992 | 81.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0039 | -2.32** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
42 days
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