V-Lab
Henderson Far East Income Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
4,214.36
increased by 2.62
1 Week
4,075.84
decreased by 135.90
1 Month
3,942.52
decreased by 269.22
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9379 | 10.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0845 | 10.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8987 | 81.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0037 | -2.22** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9379 | 10.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0845 | 10.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8987 | 81.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0037 | -2.22** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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