V-Lab
Heng Leasing And Capital Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
11,206.21
increased by 6,498.70
1 Week
6,274.89
increased by 1,567.38
1 Month
4,415.28
decreased by 292.23
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4329 | 3.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.2005 | 8.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7807 | 30.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1049 | -1.81* |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4329 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2005 | 8.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7807 | 30.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1049 | -1.81* |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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