V-Lab
GSM Foils Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
7,684.37
decreased by 2,702.42
1 Week
16,389.51
increased by 6,002.72
1 Month
11,181.63
increased by 794.84
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9923 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2305 | 3.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7015 | 7.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.4946 | -1.53 |
Persistence:
0.932
Half-life:
10 days
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