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V-Lab

GSM Foils Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

6,875.39

increased by 452.51

1 Week

3,485.21

decreased by 2,937.67

1 Month

1,920.56

decreased by 4,502.32

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of GSM Foils Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2024 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5830
6.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1511
4.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7986
13.56***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.9964
-3.31***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days