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V-Lab

GSM Foils Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

7,684.37

decreased by 2,702.42

1 Week

16,389.51

increased by 6,002.72

1 Month

11,181.63

increased by 794.84

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of GSM Foils Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 31, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9923
6.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2305
3.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7015
7.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.4946
-1.53

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days