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Grainturk Tarim Anonim Sirke Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

11,986.63

increased by 4,432.49

1 Week

4,045.13

decreased by 3,509.01

1 Month

3,175.78

decreased by 4,378.36

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Grainturk Tarim Anonim Sirke ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 2023 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3699
3.90***
αARCH0.4263
2.67***
βGARCH0.3907
6.38***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1169
-1.33

0.817

Persistence

3d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3699
3.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4263
2.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3907
6.38***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1169
-1.33

Persistence:

0.817

Half-life:

3 days