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V-Lab

Molten Ventures PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

5,930.68

increased by 1,000.36

1 Week

5,653.57

increased by 723.25

1 Month

6,032.87

increased by 1,102.55

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Molten Ventures PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 14, 2016 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4458
1.45
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2637
2.11**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6557
7.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-3.1812
-2.82***
γ23.9859
2.49**
γ3-1.5822
-2.12**
γ42.1838
4.26***
γ5-2.2193
-5.91***
γ60.8861
2.82***
γ7-0.0879
-0.18

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days