V-Lab
Molten Ventures PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
5,930.68
increased by 1,000.36
1 Week
5,653.57
increased by 723.25
1 Month
6,032.87
increased by 1,102.55
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 14, 2016 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4458 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2637 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6557 | 7.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -3.1812 | -2.82*** |
| γ2 | 3.9859 | 2.49** |
| γ3 | -1.5822 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 2.1838 | 4.26*** |
| γ5 | -2.2193 | -5.91*** |
| γ6 | 0.8861 | 2.82*** |
| γ7 | -0.0879 | -0.18 |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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