V-Lab
Geopark Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
4,286.69
increased by 198.33
1 Week
4,556.60
increased by 468.24
1 Month
5,886.44
increased by 1,798.08
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 09:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2010 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2774 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1667 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8333 | 0.03 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -1.4864 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 2.1159 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.8919 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 0.3970 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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