V-Lab
Great Portland Estates PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
4,934.67
increased by 44.44
1 Week
4,930.25
increased by 40.02
1 Month
5,217.58
increased by 327.35
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 119 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9904 | 2.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0495 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9447 | 139.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1062 | -3.37*** |
| γ2 | 0.1414 | 3.04*** |
| γ3 | -0.0406 | -1.58 |
| γ4 | 0.0105 | 0.60 |
| γ5 | 0.0365 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
119 days
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