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Great Portland Estates PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

4,311.40

increased by 80.10

1 Week

4,302.03

increased by 70.73

1 Month

4,535.86

increased by 304.56

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Great Portland Estates PLC ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 103% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6681
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0169
12.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9744
726.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0175
8.86***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days