Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk PT Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
5,441.49
decreased by 1,154.36
1 Week
6,533.42
decreased by 62.43
1 Month
6,836.85
increased by 241.00
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3029 | 4.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2888 | 6.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5624 | 10.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0547 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 3.3675 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | -5.1995 | -1.10 |
| γ4 | 2.9250 | 0.84 |
| γ5 | -3.6153 | -0.98 |
| γ6 | 9.4635 | 2.83*** |
| γ7 | -17.5570 | -6.01*** |
| γ8 | 22.8097 | 8.06*** |
| γ9 | -20.9595 | -7.40*** |
| γ10 | 16.8866 | 3.23*** |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
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