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V-Lab

Gulf Insurance Group Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

9,533.00

increased by 5,159.86

1 Week

5,205.62

increased by 832.48

1 Month

3,249.39

decreased by 1,123.75

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gulf Insurance Group ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 27, 2009 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7266
4.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2139
10.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7089
17.60***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.0511
-3.94***
γ21.7944
3.44***
γ3-1.2253
-2.31**
γ40.8594
2.11**
γ5-0.8703
-4.36***
γ60.9212
8.15***
γ7-0.5498
-4.37***
γ80.0913
0.47

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days