Gulf Insurance Group Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
9,533.00
increased by 5,159.86
1 Week
5,205.62
increased by 832.48
1 Month
3,249.39
decreased by 1,123.75
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 27, 2009 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7266 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2139 | 10.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7089 | 17.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.0511 | -3.94*** |
| γ2 | 1.7944 | 3.44*** |
| γ3 | -1.2253 | -2.31** |
| γ4 | 0.8594 | 2.11** |
| γ5 | -0.8703 | -4.36*** |
| γ6 | 0.9212 | 8.15*** |
| γ7 | -0.5498 | -4.37*** |
| γ8 | 0.0913 | 0.47 |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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