Gulf Insurance Group ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
10,042.82
1 Week
5,226.75
1 Month
3,129.74
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 27, 2009 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2531 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5753 | 27.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2531 | -0.02 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0577 | 0.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9358 | 7.48*** |
Persistence:
0.702
Half-life:
2 days
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