Generic Engineering Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
13,085.09
increased by 6,664.84
1 Week
7,565.87
increased by 1,145.62
1 Month
3,230.15
decreased by 3,190.10
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2016 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 15753 trading days (~62.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~15753 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2638 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.2374 | 2.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7625 | 8.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.2675 | -0.47 |
| γ2 | -1.9955 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | 12.3705 | 0.69 |
| γ4 | -17.3159 | -0.83 |
| γ5 | 12.3617 | 1.09 |
| γ6 | -6.4932 | -1.41 |
1.000
Persistence15753d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2638 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2374 | 2.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7625 | 8.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.2675 | -0.47 |
| γ2 | -1.9955 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | 12.3705 | 0.69 |
| γ4 | -17.3159 | -0.83 |
| γ5 | 12.3617 | 1.09 |
| γ6 | -6.4932 | -1.41 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
15753 days
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