V-Lab
Gemini Space Station Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
4,827.99
increased by 306.50
1 Week
4,692.93
increased by 171.44
1 Month
5,630.31
increased by 1,108.82
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 2025 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7936 | 6.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0598 | 1.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8421 | 7.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -3.7792 | -4.43*** |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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