Ghani Chemworld Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
4,471.13
decreased by 803.81
1 Week
5,409.77
increased by 134.83
1 Month
5,321.33
increased by 46.39
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7690 | 4.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.2960 | 5.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6204 | 11.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 3.0575 | 4.07*** |
0.916
Persistence8d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7690 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2960 | 5.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6204 | 11.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 3.0575 | 4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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