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V-Lab

Gcdi Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

9,125.14

increased by 4,625.10

1 Week

5,647.30

increased by 1,147.26

1 Month

6,180.93

increased by 1,680.89

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Gcdi Sa ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 56 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4221
5.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1956
11.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7920
49.72***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-1.4308
-5.54***
γ23.0468
6.02***
γ3-2.7519
-6.73***
γ42.1737
8.01***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days