Gcdi Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
9,125.14
increased by 4,625.10
1 Week
5,647.30
increased by 1,147.26
1 Month
6,180.93
increased by 1,680.89
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 56 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4221 | 5.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1956 | 11.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7920 | 49.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -1.4308 | -5.54*** |
| γ2 | 3.0468 | 6.02*** |
| γ3 | -2.7519 | -6.73*** |
| γ4 | 2.1737 | 8.01*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
Other Gcdi Sa Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities