Gcdi Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
7,313.36
1 Week
3,811.13
1 Month
4,440.09
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1829 | 1.84* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7754 | 46.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1829 | -0.79 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 9.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1696 | 6.72*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8267 | 7.76*** |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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