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Galiano Gold Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

5,147.10

increased by 100.30

1 Week

5,794.25

increased by 747.45

1 Month

5,413.89

increased by 367.09

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Galiano Gold Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 304 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~304 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5774
3.17***
αARCH0.1429
18.70***
βGARCH0.8548
109.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0045
-0.90

0.998

Persistence

304d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5774
3.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1429
18.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8548
109.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0045
-0.90

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

304 days