V-Lab
Galiano Gold Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
5,147.10
increased by 100.30
1 Week
5,794.25
increased by 747.45
1 Month
5,413.89
increased by 367.09
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 304 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~304 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5774 | 3.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.1429 | 18.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8548 | 109.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0045 | -0.90 |
0.998
Persistence304d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5774 | 3.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1429 | 18.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8548 | 109.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0045 | -0.90 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
304 days
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