V-Lab
Primis Financial Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
4,439.02
increased by 81.65
1 Week
4,545.71
increased by 188.34
1 Month
4,317.30
decreased by 40.07
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5683 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1107 | 7.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8282 | 33.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.0859 | -4.99*** |
| γ2 | 1.3403 | 4.21*** |
| γ3 | -0.3983 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | -0.0467 | -0.20 |
| γ5 | 0.4987 | 2.54** |
| γ6 | -0.2526 | -1.85* |
| γ7 | -0.1057 | -0.98 |
| γ8 | 0.0829 | 0.77 |
| γ9 | -0.3935 | -2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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