V-Lab
Fly-E Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4,524,436.00
decreased by 739,309.00
1 Week
5,265,398.00
increased by 1,653.00
1 Month
3,572,923.00
decreased by 1,690,822.00
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 6, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2198 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2613 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7357 | 22.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.2906 | 2.15** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
232 days
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