V-Lab
Firstgroup PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
4,550.33
decreased by 333.48
1 Week
5,094.44
increased by 210.63
1 Month
7,221.90
increased by 2,338.09
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2064 | 0.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0913 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9087 | 0.21 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.2050 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.2779 | 0.03 |
| γ3 | -0.0939 | -0.05 |
| γ4 | 0.0158 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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