FDH Bank PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
52,455.45
increased by 49,419.08
1 Week
15,118.50
increased by 12,082.13
1 Month
3,775.16
increased by 738.79
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2020 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4856 | 2.22** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7107 | 5.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2750 | 1.85* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 8.2208 | 0.77 |
| γ2 | -27.0768 | -1.52 |
| γ3 | 36.7525 | 2.41** |
| γ4 | -37.9277 | -2.61*** |
| γ5 | 41.5737 | 3.67*** |
| γ6 | -40.0970 | -4.67*** |
| γ7 | 37.2531 | 3.61*** |
| γ8 | -42.3304 | -3.03*** |
| γ9 | 66.3238 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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