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V-Lab

FDH Bank PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

52,455.45

increased by 49,419.08

1 Week

15,118.50

increased by 12,082.13

1 Month

3,775.16

increased by 738.79

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of FDH Bank PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 3, 2020 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4856
2.22**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7107
5.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2750
1.85*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ18.2208
0.77
γ2-27.0768
-1.52
γ336.7525
2.41**
γ4-37.9277
-2.61***
γ541.5737
3.67***
γ6-40.0970
-4.67***
γ737.2531
3.61***
γ8-42.3304
-3.03***
γ966.3238
3.32***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days