Fagron Nv Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
5,608.24
decreased by 508.69
1 Week
5,943.69
decreased by 173.24
1 Month
6,247.03
increased by 130.10
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~218 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0950 | 5.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.1007 | 13.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8962 | 118.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -0.36 |
0.997
Persistence218d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0950 | 5.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1007 | 13.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8962 | 118.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0016 | -0.36 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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