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Fagron Nv Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

5,608.24

decreased by 508.69

1 Week

5,943.69

decreased by 173.24

1 Month

6,247.03

increased by 130.10

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Fagron Nv ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~218 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0950
5.10***
αARCH0.1007
13.43***
βGARCH0.8962
118.97***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0016
-0.36

0.997

Persistence

218d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0950
5.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1007
13.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8962
118.97***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0016
-0.36

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

218 days