V-Lab
Earth Tech Environment Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
2,728.48
increased by 339.69
1 Week
3,008.15
increased by 619.36
1 Month
5,815.19
increased by 3,426.40
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 18, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7938 | 0.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1937 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 0.03 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3729 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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