ENAV S.p.A. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
4,355.14
decreased by 373.36
1 Week
4,820.27
increased by 91.77
1 Month
4,994.11
increased by 265.61
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2016 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4747 | 11.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0847 | 7.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8886 | 54.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0213 | -3.59*** |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4747 | 11.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0847 | 7.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8886 | 54.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0213 | -3.59*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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