Helleniq Energy Holdings Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
3,096.96
increased by 5.01
1 Week
3,221.83
increased by 129.88
1 Month
2,589.83
decreased by 502.12
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 29, 1998 to Oct 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 129 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~129 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2074 | 6.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.1119 | 17.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8828 | 131.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0051 | -2.77*** |
0.995
Persistence129d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2074 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1119 | 17.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8828 | 131.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0051 | -2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
129 days
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