V-Lab
Elementis PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
5,950.85
increased by 286.08
1 Week
5,883.20
increased by 218.43
1 Month
5,998.45
increased by 333.68
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 17773 trading days (~70.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0107 | 3.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0539 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9460 | 99.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0198 | -3.96*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
17773 days
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