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Elementis PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026

1 Day

5,950.85

increased by 286.08

1 Week

5,883.20

increased by 218.43

1 Month

5,998.45

increased by 333.68

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Elementis PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 17773 trading days (~70.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0107
3.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0539
5.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9460
99.52***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0198
-3.96***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

17773 days