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Natural Gas & Mining Project Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

7,632.72

decreased by 165.12

1 Week

6,332.04

decreased by 1,465.80

1 Month

3,573.73

decreased by 4,224.11

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Natural Gas & Mining Project ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 1999 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.9358
4.90***
αARCH0.1337
9.19***
βGARCH0.8585
60.77***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.2290
-1.18
γ20.3017
0.99
γ30.3305
1.58
γ4-1.0630
-5.87***
γ51.2318
4.30***
γ6-1.0976
-3.38***
γ70.8434
3.36***
γ8-0.2873
-1.18

0.992

Persistence

89d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9358
4.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1337
9.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8585
60.77***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.2290
-1.18
γ20.3017
0.99
γ30.3305
1.58
γ4-1.0630
-5.87***
γ51.2318
4.30***
γ6-1.0976
-3.38***
γ70.8434
3.36***
γ8-0.2873
-1.18

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

89 days