Natural Gas & Mining Project Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
7,632.72
decreased by 165.12
1 Week
6,332.04
decreased by 1,465.80
1 Month
3,573.73
decreased by 4,224.11
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 06:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 1999 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.9358 | 4.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1337 | 9.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8585 | 60.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2290 | -1.18 |
| γ2 | 0.3017 | 0.99 |
| γ3 | 0.3305 | 1.58 |
| γ4 | -1.0630 | -5.87*** |
| γ5 | 1.2318 | 4.30*** |
| γ6 | -1.0976 | -3.38*** |
| γ7 | 0.8434 | 3.36*** |
| γ8 | -0.2873 | -1.18 |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9358 | 4.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1337 | 9.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8585 | 60.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2290 | -1.18 |
| γ2 | 0.3017 | 0.99 |
| γ3 | 0.3305 | 1.58 |
| γ4 | -1.0630 | -5.87*** |
| γ5 | 1.2318 | 4.30*** |
| γ6 | -1.0976 | -3.38*** |
| γ7 | 0.8434 | 3.36*** |
| γ8 | -0.2873 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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