V-Lab
Eagle Financial Services Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
3,521.65
decreased by 551.06
1 Week
4,098.20
increased by 25.49
1 Month
4,468.48
increased by 395.77
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 10, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2529 | 5.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.1250 | 2.30** |
| βGARCH | 0.7555 | 7.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.9293 | -4.35*** |
0.880
Persistence5d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2529 | 5.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1250 | 2.30** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7555 | 7.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.9293 | -4.35*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
Other Eagle Financial Services Inc Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on Equities