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Eagle Financial Services Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

3,521.65

decreased by 551.06

1 Week

4,098.20

increased by 25.49

1 Month

4,468.48

increased by 395.77

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Eagle Financial Services Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 10, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2529
5.27***
αARCH0.1250
2.30**
βGARCH0.7555
7.24***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.9293
-4.35***

0.880

Persistence

5d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2529
5.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1250
2.30**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7555
7.24***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.9293
-4.35***

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days