V-Lab
E Data Teknoloji Pazarlama Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
16,236.97
increased by 13,513.74
1 Week
5,131.77
increased by 2,408.54
1 Month
2,258.89
decreased by 464.34
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 346573 trading days (~1375.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~346573 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0817 | |
| αARCH | 0.2330 | |
| βGARCH | 0.7670 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.5091 | |
| γ2 | 3.5022 |
1.000
Persistence346573d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0817 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2330 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7670 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.5091 | |
| γ2 | 3.5022 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
346573 days
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