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ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

568,489,100.00

decreased by 25,434,000.00

1 Week

590,371,066.67

decreased by 3,552,033.33

1 Month

716,224,693.33

increased by 122,301,593.33

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 14, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 419 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0134
2.29**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0873
3.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9110
36.95***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.7886
0.11
γ2-0.7710
-0.08
γ31.6952
0.33
γ4-6.9105
-1.81*
γ515.5205
3.08***
γ6-22.8531
-3.61***
γ719.9728
3.09***
γ8-5.7370
-0.34

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

419 days