V-Lab
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
568,489,100.00
decreased by 25,434,000.00
1 Week
590,371,066.67
decreased by 3,552,033.33
1 Month
716,224,693.33
increased by 122,301,593.33
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 419 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0134 | 2.29** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0873 | 3.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9110 | 36.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.7886 | 0.11 |
| γ2 | -0.7710 | -0.08 |
| γ3 | 1.6952 | 0.33 |
| γ4 | -6.9105 | -1.81* |
| γ5 | 15.5205 | 3.08*** |
| γ6 | -22.8531 | -3.61*** |
| γ7 | 19.9728 | 3.09*** |
| γ8 | -5.7370 | -0.34 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
419 days
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