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ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

799,866,900.00

increased by 1,613,700.00

1 Week

799,060,050.00

increased by 806,850.00

1 Month

691,034,862.50

decreased by 107,218,337.50

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 14, 2014 to Oct 12, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1711
4.51***
αARCH0.1608
2.11**
βGARCH0.2820
1.55
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.9022
-0.36
γ20.4607
0.12
γ33.2339
1.21
γ4-4.9014
-1.73*
γ5-0.4040
-0.13
γ613.3119
3.43***
γ7-23.7090
-6.09***
γ819.8636
5.53***
γ9-12.8751
-2.61***
γ1018.2079
3.20***

0.443

Persistence

1d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1711
4.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1608
2.11**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2820
1.55
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.9022
-0.36
γ20.4607
0.12
γ33.2339
1.21
γ4-4.9014
-1.73*
γ5-0.4040
-0.13
γ613.3119
3.43***
γ7-23.7090
-6.09***
γ819.8636
5.53***
γ9-12.8751
-2.61***
γ1018.2079
3.20***

Persistence:

0.443

Half-life:

1 days