ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
12,856,460.00
decreased by 7,611,950.00
1 Week
16,662,435.00
decreased by 3,805,975.00
1 Month
5,074,120.81
decreased by 15,394,289.19
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 64 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8495 | 1.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3611 | 4.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6281 | 6.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0985 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.6679 | 0.13 |
| γ3 | 0.8341 | 0.22 |
| γ4 | -6.9922 | -2.54** |
| γ5 | 16.8134 | 5.11*** |
| γ6 | -24.1112 | -6.00*** |
| γ7 | 23.8570 | 6.97*** |
| γ8 | -39.1927 | -5.90*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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