V-Lab
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
717,078,200.00
decreased by 48,187,700.00
1 Week
795,552,080.00
increased by 30,286,180.00
1 Month
742,072,645.45
decreased by 23,193,254.55
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 341 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9797 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0839 | 2.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9141 | 33.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 1.2538 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -1.5382 | -0.16 |
| γ3 | 2.4719 | 0.49 |
| γ4 | -8.1653 | -2.03** |
| γ5 | 17.1290 | 2.89*** |
| γ6 | -23.5736 | -3.22*** |
| γ7 | 18.9615 | 2.46** |
| γ8 | -4.7263 | -0.23 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
341 days
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