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ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

1,182,074,000.00

decreased by 1,079,000.00

1 Week

1,182,613,500.00

decreased by 539,500.00

1 Month

980,826,870.00

decreased by 202,326,130.00

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ECP Emerging Growth Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 14, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1709
4.51***
αARCH0.1592
2.10**
βGARCH0.2856
1.56
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.8975
-0.36
γ20.4565
0.12
γ33.2314
1.21
γ4-4.8954
-1.73*
γ5-0.4145
-0.13
γ613.3319
3.43***
γ7-23.7493
-6.11***
γ819.9584
5.56***
γ9-13.1196
-2.65***
γ1018.9037
3.13***

0.445

Persistence

1d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1709
4.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1592
2.10**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2856
1.56
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.8975
-0.36
γ20.4565
0.12
γ33.2314
1.21
γ4-4.8954
-1.73*
γ5-0.4145
-0.13
γ613.3319
3.43***
γ7-23.7493
-6.11***
γ819.9584
5.56***
γ9-13.1196
-2.65***
γ1018.9037
3.13***

Persistence:

0.445

Half-life:

1 days