ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
799,866,900.00
increased by 1,613,700.00
1 Week
799,060,050.00
increased by 806,850.00
1 Month
691,034,862.50
decreased by 107,218,337.50
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2014 to Oct 12, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1711 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.1608 | 2.11** |
| βGARCH | 0.2820 | 1.55 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.9022 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.4607 | 0.12 |
| γ3 | 3.2339 | 1.21 |
| γ4 | -4.9014 | -1.73* |
| γ5 | -0.4040 | -0.13 |
| γ6 | 13.3119 | 3.43*** |
| γ7 | -23.7090 | -6.09*** |
| γ8 | 19.8636 | 5.53*** |
| γ9 | -12.8751 | -2.61*** |
| γ10 | 18.2079 | 3.20*** |
0.443
Persistence1d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1711 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1608 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2820 | 1.55 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.9022 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.4607 | 0.12 |
| γ3 | 3.2339 | 1.21 |
| γ4 | -4.9014 | -1.73* |
| γ5 | -0.4040 | -0.13 |
| γ6 | 13.3119 | 3.43*** |
| γ7 | -23.7090 | -6.09*** |
| γ8 | 19.8636 | 5.53*** |
| γ9 | -12.8751 | -2.61*** |
| γ10 | 18.2079 | 3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.443
Half-life:
1 days
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