V-Lab
ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
1,182,074,000.00
decreased by 1,079,000.00
1 Week
1,182,613,500.00
decreased by 539,500.00
1 Month
980,826,870.00
decreased by 202,326,130.00
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1709 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.1592 | 2.10** |
| βGARCH | 0.2856 | 1.56 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8975 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.4565 | 0.12 |
| γ3 | 3.2314 | 1.21 |
| γ4 | -4.8954 | -1.73* |
| γ5 | -0.4145 | -0.13 |
| γ6 | 13.3319 | 3.43*** |
| γ7 | -23.7493 | -6.11*** |
| γ8 | 19.9584 | 5.56*** |
| γ9 | -13.1196 | -2.65*** |
| γ10 | 18.9037 | 3.13*** |
0.445
Persistence1d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1709 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1592 | 2.10** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2856 | 1.56 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8975 | -0.36 |
| γ2 | 0.4565 | 0.12 |
| γ3 | 3.2314 | 1.21 |
| γ4 | -4.8954 | -1.73* |
| γ5 | -0.4145 | -0.13 |
| γ6 | 13.3319 | 3.43*** |
| γ7 | -23.7493 | -6.11*** |
| γ8 | 19.9584 | 5.56*** |
| γ9 | -13.1196 | -2.65*** |
| γ10 | 18.9037 | 3.13*** |
Persistence:
0.445
Half-life:
1 days
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