ECP Emerging Growth Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
476,579,600.00
increased by 467,244,105.00
1 Week
242,957,547.50
increased by 233,622,052.50
1 Month
50,531,908.82
increased by 41,196,413.82
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0483 | 4.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9558 | 274.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0082 | -0.59 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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