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Durlax TOP Surface Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

1 Day

10,292.38

increased by 5,913.53

1 Week

5,019.91

increased by 641.06

1 Month

3,777.70

decreased by 601.15

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/27/2024

to

10/27/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Durlax TOP Surface Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5161
6.21***
αARCH0.2611
3.27***
βGARCH0.4649
3.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.7520
-8.00***

0.726

Persistence

2d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5161
6.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2611
3.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4649
3.34***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.7520
-8.00***

Persistence:

0.726

Half-life:

2 days