V-Lab
Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mill Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,129.36
decreased by 3,958.36
1 Week
5,102.42
decreased by 3,985.30
1 Month
2,840.68
decreased by 6,247.04
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 2009 to Aug 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.8404 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4894 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5106 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.0698 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.6024 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 1.8918 | 0.09 |
| γ4 | -4.0304 | -0.08 |
| γ5 | 3.4311 | 0.14 |
| γ6 | 1.0644 | 0.03 |
| γ7 | -5.2789 | -0.10 |
| γ8 | 6.4808 | 0.18 |
| γ9 | -3.6794 | -0.58 |
| γ10 | -24.4402 | -0.48 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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