V-Lab
Destek Finans Faktoring A S Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
28,360.80
increased by 23,125.60
1 Week
9,019.42
increased by 3,784.22
1 Month
2,638.30
decreased by 2,596.90
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 6, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7452 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.7114 | 2.56** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -19.5485 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | 17.1473 | 0.30 |
| γ3 | 37.3499 | 0.69 |
| γ4 | -89.7144 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | 98.8353 | 1.57 |
| γ6 | -65.4358 | -1.42 |
| γ7 | 84.8581 | 1.37 |
0.711
Persistence2d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7452 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7114 | 2.56** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -19.5485 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | 17.1473 | 0.30 |
| γ3 | 37.3499 | 0.69 |
| γ4 | -89.7144 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | 98.8353 | 1.57 |
| γ6 | -65.4358 | -1.42 |
| γ7 | 84.8581 | 1.37 |
Persistence:
0.711
Half-life:
2 days
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