V-Lab
D P Wires Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
10,863.35
decreased by 2,828.80
1 Week
12,417.50
decreased by 1,274.65
1 Month
9,153.99
decreased by 4,538.16
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 06:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4037 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2458 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7542 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 13.5427 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -47.8009 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 63.2991 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -35.8178 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 3.6559 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 5.2920 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -1.9862 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -0.9473 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 1.9240 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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