Skip to main content
V-Lab

Danya Cebus Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026

1 Day

4,367.12

increased by 198.02

1 Week

4,521.95

increased by 352.85

1 Month

5,129.90

increased by 960.80

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Danya Cebus Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2021 to Aug 20, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7513
6.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0891
4.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8701
22.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0761
-2.23**

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

17 days