V-Lab
Danya Cebus Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,367.12
increased by 198.02
1 Week
4,521.95
increased by 352.85
1 Month
5,129.90
increased by 960.80
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2021 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7513 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0891 | 4.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8701 | 22.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0761 | -2.23** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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