Dj Mediaprint & Logistics Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
16,117.75
increased by 11,726.36
1 Week
7,128.13
increased by 2,736.74
1 Month
3,759.43
decreased by 631.96
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2020 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7707 | 3.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.3464 | 8.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6438 | 15.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0338 | -0.59 |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7707 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3464 | 8.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6438 | 15.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0338 | -0.59 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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