Diversified Royalty Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 16th, 2026
1 Day
4,786.60
decreased by 283.20
1 Week
4,998.86
decreased by 70.94
1 Month
4,777.49
decreased by 292.31
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 12, 1996 to Nov 13, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1497 trading days (~5.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1497 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.0025 | 2.24** |
| αARCH | 0.1356 | 8.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8639 | 55.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.6182 | -3.27*** |
| γ2 | 1.7634 | 3.88*** |
| γ3 | -2.0624 | -4.51*** |
| γ4 | 1.3947 | 5.13*** |
| γ5 | -0.7562 | -5.38*** |
1.000
Persistence1497d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.0025 | 2.24** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1356 | 8.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8639 | 55.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.6182 | -3.27*** |
| γ2 | 1.7634 | 3.88*** |
| γ3 | -2.0624 | -4.51*** |
| γ4 | 1.3947 | 5.13*** |
| γ5 | -0.7562 | -5.38*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1497 days
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