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Digital Network SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

5,841.92

increased by 98.62

1 Week

6,405.26

increased by 661.96

1 Month

8,233.74

increased by 2,490.44

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Digital Network SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst9.4275
2.09**
αARCH0.1644
4.64***
βGARCH0.8315
22.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.1524
0.25
γ20.9728
1.15
γ3-2.4287
-4.69***
γ42.0484
3.78***
γ5-1.0954
-1.94*
γ61.1018
1.96**
γ7-5.2770
-7.48***
γ810.7933
8.08***

0.996

Persistence

170d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.4275
2.09**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1644
4.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8315
22.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.1524
0.25
γ20.9728
1.15
γ3-2.4287
-4.69***
γ42.0484
3.78***
γ5-1.0954
-1.94*
γ61.1018
1.96**
γ7-5.2770
-7.48***
γ810.7933
8.08***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

170 days