V-Lab
Digital Network SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
5,841.92
increased by 98.62
1 Week
6,405.26
increased by 661.96
1 Month
8,233.74
increased by 2,490.44
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 170 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~170 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.4275 | 2.09** |
| αARCH | 0.1644 | 4.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8315 | 22.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1524 | 0.25 |
| γ2 | 0.9728 | 1.15 |
| γ3 | -2.4287 | -4.69*** |
| γ4 | 2.0484 | 3.78*** |
| γ5 | -1.0954 | -1.94* |
| γ6 | 1.1018 | 1.96** |
| γ7 | -5.2770 | -7.48*** |
| γ8 | 10.7933 | 8.08*** |
0.996
Persistence170d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.4275 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1644 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8315 | 22.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1524 | 0.25 |
| γ2 | 0.9728 | 1.15 |
| γ3 | -2.4287 | -4.69*** |
| γ4 | 2.0484 | 3.78*** |
| γ5 | -1.0954 | -1.94* |
| γ6 | 1.1018 | 1.96** |
| γ7 | -5.2770 | -7.48*** |
| γ8 | 10.7933 | 8.08*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
170 days
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