V-Lab
The Dacca Dyeing Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
13,720.22
increased by 2,862.43
1 Week
9,432.05
decreased by 1,425.74
1 Month
5,144.46
decreased by 5,713.33
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 28, 2009 to Aug 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 63013 trading days (~250.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5929 | 0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3818 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6182 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -7.4923 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 8.3248 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.1009 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 4.5823 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 22.7760 | 0.01 |
| γ6 | -65.6035 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | 53.6859 | 0.01 |
| γ8 | -26.9669 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | 18.4852 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -12.1811 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
63013 days
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