V-Lab
Doubledragon Corporation Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
5,434.15
increased by 4,264.10
1 Week
2,075.46
increased by 905.41
1 Month
1,807.26
increased by 637.21
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 7, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1140 trading days (~4.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1140 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1782 | 2.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.1593 | 12.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8401 | 64.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0073 | -0.53 |
0.999
Persistence1140d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1782 | 2.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1593 | 12.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8401 | 64.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0073 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1140 days
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