V-Lab
CoastalSouth Bancshares Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
3,835.15
decreased by 8.77
1 Week
3,836.58
decreased by 7.34
1 Month
3,817.08
decreased by 26.84
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6479 | 5.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9928 | 2.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.8129 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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