V-Lab
Cosmic CRF Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3,832.19
decreased by 399.32
1 Week
4,416.50
increased by 184.99
1 Month
3,654.56
decreased by 576.95
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4075 | 10.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2478 | 6.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6211 | 11.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3150 | 3.75*** |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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