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V-Lab

Cosmic CRF Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

3,832.19

decreased by 399.32

1 Week

4,416.50

increased by 184.99

1 Month

3,654.56

decreased by 576.95

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Cosmic CRF Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 30, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4075
10.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2478
6.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6211
11.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.3150
3.75***

Persistence:

0.869

Half-life:

5 days