V-Lab
Cosco Capital Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,850.60
increased by 2,118.37
1 Week
4,892.64
increased by 1,160.41
1 Month
3,447.87
decreased by 284.36
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1994 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.9945 | 4.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1412 | 8.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8508 | 53.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.9346 | 3.49*** |
| γ2 | -1.2681 | -3.39*** |
| γ3 | 0.6626 | 3.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.5661 | -1.61 |
| γ5 | -1.7765 | -2.01** |
| γ6 | 6.0150 | 3.92*** |
| γ7 | -6.2142 | -4.66*** |
| γ8 | 2.6749 | 4.59*** |
| γ9 | -0.8907 | -2.56** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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