Compass Minerals International Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
2,274.20
decreased by 6.60
1 Week
2,018.09
decreased by 262.71
1 Month
1,776.46
decreased by 504.34
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2003 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3837 | 6.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.0833 | 13.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9096 | 144.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0046 | 2.47** |
0.993
Persistence96d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3837 | 6.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0833 | 13.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9096 | 144.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0046 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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