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Compass Minerals International Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

2,274.20

decreased by 6.60

1 Week

2,018.09

decreased by 262.71

1 Month

1,776.46

decreased by 504.34

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Compass Minerals International Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 12, 2003 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3837
6.01***
αARCH0.0833
13.37***
βGARCH0.9096
144.21***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0046
2.47**

0.993

Persistence

96d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3837
6.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0833
13.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9096
144.21***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0046
2.47**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days