V-Lab
Compass Minerals International Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,770.61
increased by 236.25
1 Week
1,638.33
increased by 103.97
1 Month
1,978.18
increased by 443.82
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2003 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3716 | 5.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0834 | 13.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9095 | 144.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0044 | 2.22** |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3716 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0834 | 13.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9095 | 144.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0044 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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