V-Lab
Creative Graphics Solutions Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
1 Day
6,799.97
decreased by 1,333.37
1 Week
9,544.52
increased by 1,411.18
1 Month
5,745.21
decreased by 2,388.13
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 9, 2024 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7474 | 4.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3137 | 3.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5970 | 7.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0803 | -0.31 |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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