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V-Lab

Creative Graphics Solutions Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

6,389.19

increased by 1,529.22

1 Week

5,599.12

increased by 739.15

1 Month

6,538.53

increased by 1,678.56

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Creative Graphics Solutions ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 19, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7503
4.73***
αARCH0.2999
3.92***
βGARCH0.6002
7.59***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0066
0.03

0.900

Persistence

7d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7503
4.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2999
3.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6002
7.59***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0066
0.03

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days