V-Lab
Credito Emiliano SpA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
4,371.70
increased by 696.28
1 Week
4,164.44
increased by 489.02
1 Month
4,127.14
increased by 451.72
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 1994 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7413 | |
| αARCH | 0.1152 | |
| βGARCH | 0.8848 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0708 | |
| γ2 | -0.2060 |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7413 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1152 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8848 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0708 | |
| γ2 | -0.2060 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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