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Credito Emiliano SpA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

4,371.70

increased by 696.28

1 Week

4,164.44

increased by 489.02

1 Month

4,127.14

increased by 451.72

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Credito Emiliano SpA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 15, 1994 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7413
αARCH0.1152
βGARCH0.8848
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0708
γ2-0.2060

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7413
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1152
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8848
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0708
γ2-0.2060

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-