Crescent Capital BDC Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
5,958.08
decreased by 318.12
1 Week
5,112.15
decreased by 1,164.05
1 Month
4,517.98
decreased by 1,758.22
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 3, 2020 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9081 | 5.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.1480 | 8.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8448 | 47.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0437 | -0.88 |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9081 | 5.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1480 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8448 | 47.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0437 | -0.88 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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