V-Lab
Caverton Offshore Support Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
5,291.49
decreased by 361.35
1 Week
5,452.93
decreased by 199.91
1 Month
5,433.07
decreased by 219.77
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 21, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8190 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0588 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8067 | 11.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.3403 | 0.94 |
| γ2 | -1.5823 | -2.95*** |
| γ3 | 2.1124 | 5.86*** |
| γ4 | -1.0157 | -3.24*** |
| γ5 | 0.3249 | 0.93 |
| γ6 | -0.3921 | -0.96 |
| γ7 | -0.3137 | -0.83 |
| γ8 | 1.5284 | 3.70*** |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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