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V-Lab

Caverton Offshore Support Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

5,291.49

decreased by 361.35

1 Week

5,452.93

decreased by 199.91

1 Month

5,433.07

decreased by 219.77

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caverton Offshore Support ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 21, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8190
5.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0588
2.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8067
11.64***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.3403
0.94
γ2-1.5823
-2.95***
γ32.1124
5.86***
γ4-1.0157
-3.24***
γ50.3249
0.93
γ6-0.3921
-0.96
γ7-0.3137
-0.83
γ81.5284
3.70***

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days