V-Lab
3-2 INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION JSC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
3,729.45
increased by 2,282.82
1 Week
1,974.42
increased by 527.79
1 Month
1,549.34
increased by 102.71
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 22.7358 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1002 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8998 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.4217 | |
| γ2 | -9.4948 | |
| γ3 | 14.5552 | |
| γ4 | -9.3856 | |
| γ5 | 0.8841 | |
| γ6 | 0.1058 | |
| γ7 | 2.3315 | |
| γ8 | 1.1221 | |
| γ9 | -6.1859 | |
| γ10 | 6.9956 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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