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3-2 INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION JSC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

3,729.45

increased by 2,282.82

1 Week

1,974.42

increased by 527.79

1 Month

1,549.34

increased by 102.71

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 3-2 INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION JSC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

22.7358
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1002
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8998
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.4217
γ2-9.4948
γ314.5552
γ4-9.3856
γ50.8841
γ60.1058
γ72.3315
γ81.1221
γ9-6.1859
γ106.9956

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

138629 days